Top Election Forecaster Makes Major Shift in Ohio Gov. Race — Amid Fallout from Vivek Ramaswamy Attack Ad

L: Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo; R: AP Photo/Tony Dejak, File

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a project of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, shifted four gubernatorial races to the left Thursday, including the Ohio contest that burst into national headlines after a highly controversial attack ad.

Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP nominee for governor, released an ad this week featuring his Democratic opponent Amy Acton’s estranged mother Donna Arthur lambasting her daughter as a “liar” and urging viewers not to vote for her. Acton has publicly spoken about her troubled childhood for years, well before she ran for office, including the reason her mother lost custody: documented neglect and abuse, most horrifically, Acton’s stepfather sexually abusing her from the ages of 9 to 12. Arthur sided with her husband against her daughter and the two have not spoken since she lost custody.

Ramaswamy’s ad drew swift and vociferous condemnation from a chorus of bipartisan voices, with many prominent conservatives declaring the ad made them more sympathetic towards Acton. National Review and other media outlets dug up the legal documents confirming Acton’s story, all of which increased the criticism of Ramaswamy, but the Republican’s campaign doubled down in their defense of the ad, continuing to attack Acton as a “serial fabulist” and dropping several million dollars to put the ad on television across Ohio.

Before the national outrage about the ad, Ramaswamy was already slipping behind Acton in the polling. CNN data guru Harry Enten marveled at Ramaswamy’s “worst this century” polling among Ohio independents the day before the ad was shared. Several prediction markets showed Ramaswamy’s chances of winning the race cratering in the wake of the backlash.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball predictions are taking a similar trajectory, expressly pointing to the ad as a heavy weight dragging Ramaswamy down.

The report by Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman noted that their analysis now rated Democrats as “at least narrowly favored” in enough states they expected to end up winning a majority of governorships across the U.S.

“The most notable rating change comes in the open Ohio governorship,” the report stated about the shift from Toss-Up to Leans D, “which has been in the national spotlight because of an explosive—and desperate—attack ad” by Ramaswamy.

This race “has already been very nasty,” the report continued, “and it took a darker turn earlier this week” when the ad with Acton’s estranged mother began circulating, noting the numerous Republicans who had condemned the ad (although Vice President JD Vance and Ramaswamy continue to defend it).

The ad “seems like an awfully risky and desperate move for Ramaswamy, who has already thrown the kitchen sink at Acton yet appears to be behind,” wrote Kondik and Coleman. They did add a few caveats, chiefly that “Ohio is clearly a red-leaning state now,” Black voter turnout has been “sagging,” and numerous analysts have expressed concern about the accuracy of polls.

“Democrats need a lot to go right in order to win in Ohio,” they wrote. “But a lot appears to be going right.”

The other three open gubernatorial races Sabato’s group moved were Alabama, where Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) is facing off against former Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL) (Safe R to Likely R); Michigan, with Rep. John James (R-MI) vs. Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) (Leans D to Likely D); and Oklahoma, former Oklahoma Budget Secretary Mike Mazzei (R) vs. Oklahoma State House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson (D) (Safe R to Likely R).

The vast majority of Crystal Ball ratings shifts during the past few months have been to the left, including 13 U.S. House races and the Georgia Senate race in July, three other open gubernatorial races in early September, and two U.S. Senate races and two gubernatorial races at the beginning of this month.

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