NEW: Cook Political Report Officially Declares ‘Toss Up’ Senate Race in Kansas — Where a Democrat Hasn’t Won in 94 Years

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

The Cook Political Report officially moved Kansas’ Senate race into “Toss Up” territory Tuesday, a stunning development in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in nearly a century.

With four weeks until Election Day, Cook shifted the contest between incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Democrat Adam Hamilton from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up” as part of a broader ratings change benefiting Democrats.

The nonpartisan election forecaster also moved New Hampshire from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democrat” and North Carolina from “Lean Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”

Cook now projects Democrats could pick up between two and six Senate seats, putting the four-seat gain they need to capture the majority firmly within the range of possible outcomes.

“While Republicans continue to have a financial edge in almost every competitive state, President Donald Trump is a drag across the board even in deep red states due to rising fuel prices and the persistent high cost of living,” Cook Senate and Governors Editor Jessica Taylor wrote.

The Kansas rating change comes just days after Republicans made a striking late-cycle investment in the state.

The Senate Leadership Fund, a top Republican super PAC, recently paused what so far has been a $30 million ad campaign supporting GOP Senate candidate Michael Whatley in North Carolina and launched a seven-figure ad buy in Kansas to help Marshall fend off Hamilton.

Marshall has faced several other warning signs in the traditionally Republican state. Two former GOP Kansas governors have endorsed Hamilton, with former Gov. Bill Graves accusing Marshall of having “turned his back” on the state.

The Republican senator was also repeatedly booed during a Kansas State Fair debate last month while defending Trump’s tariffs. The crowd later broke into chants of “Shame on you!” as Marshall faced questions over having sued hundreds of patients for unpaid bills.

A Democrat has not won a U.S. Senate election in Kansas since 1932.

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