NBC’s Steve Kornacki Warns ‘Tide’ Seems to Be ‘Working Against Democrats’ in Blue State Senate Race

NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki has signaled an increased likelihood that Minnesota will turn red in November.

Kornacki said the Democrats could be in trouble in the North Star State’s Senate race during a Wednesday morning segment on the Today show, with voters looking to punish Gov. Tim Walz (D) over fraud claims. And they could do that by picking sports reporter-turned-politician Michele Tafoya over Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D), he told co-host Savannah Guthrie.

“Relatively close here for Republicans, they’ve been trying for decades to flip Minnesota. What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about medicaid fraud. The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor!” Kornacki said as pointed at the monitor behind him.

He continued, “Tafoya, the Republican, has been saying, ‘Look, if you’re upset about that scandal, don’t vote for the lieutenant governor. There does seem to be a tide within the state that might be working against Democrats.”

Kornacki did not point to any figures in particular, but several recent polls indicate Minnesota is a close race; the Real Clear Politics average gives Flanagan a +2 edge.

And his point about voters being upset with Walz and Flanagan comes after the feds claimed an “industrial scale” $9 billion fraud scheme ripped off a number of government programs, from Medicaid to housing assistance to pandemic-era programs — all under Walz’s nose.

Kornacki pointed out Minnesota voted for ex-Vice President Kamala Harris over President Donald Trump in 2024. He also noted 13.1 million ballots have already been cast nationwide, or about 11% of the anticipated 120 million in the midterms.

Watch above.

Jason Cohen contributed to this report. 

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