Democrats Jump to Largest Lead Yet in Congressional Races as Midterms Approach

AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson

Democrats have their biggest lead yet in their bid to take control of Congress from Republicans, according to the latest polling averages.

NBC News dropped on Friday their latest polling data and averages going back to the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second administration. Democrats currently have a nine-point advantage over Republicans.

According to the polling roundup, Democrats are leading Republicans, 52% to 43%, respectively. That’s the party’s best showing thus far, and more good news for Democrats is Trump’s sinking approval rating.

Trump is averaging a 39% job approval rating and 59% disapproval.

In a survey released by the American Research Group this week, Trump saw his approval numbers drop below 20% for the first time. According to the data, 29% approve of the president’s job performance and 68% disapprove. Trump had been averaging an approval rating of 30% for three consecutive months with the American Research Group.

Weighing individual races can obviously slip numbers and which party is favored, but the move towards Democrats has mainly been driven by independent voters who are sour on inflated costs and the ongoing Iran war. Independents preferred Democrats by six points when Trump started his second term, but that number has now shot up to 16 points.

An average of 26% of independents approve of Trump’s job performance. Among Republicans, his approval rating shoots up to 79%, but that average used to be in the 80s regularly.

Longtime polling expert Nate Silver argued this week that Republicans’ “best hope” for the midterms is that the polling data is off when it shows the party losing ground with Hispanic and rural working-class White voters.

“If it’s a big polling error, though,” he said. “then all of a sudden you’re kind of stuck in, ‘Forget about the Senate,’ right? The House, probably Democrats would salvage, but you know, that’s why it’s– I mean right now, Republicans’ best hope is that the polls suck again.”

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