Darline Graham Tied in Senate Race, Opponent’s Shock Internal Poll Claims

L: Dr. Annie Andrews on Facebook; R: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call via AP Images

Dr. Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat, released an internal poll Tuesday her pollster says shows she “has a chance to pull off a major upset” against Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC), who was appointed to finish her late brother Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) term.

The polling memo from Impact Research is clearly targeted at a national audience, hoping to encourage Democratic donors to throw some financial support behind Andrews’ bid to win a state that voted for President Donald Trump by an 18-point margin.

The poll was conducted from Aug. 18 to Aug. 24 among 700 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7%.

When asked who they planned to vote for, the Democrat and Republican were tied, with 41% each, Libertarian candidate Kasie Whitener pulling 5%, and 13% undecided.

The pollster then read a “positive bio” for both Andrews and Graham and asked respondents again who they would vote for senator. The bios were as follows:

Dr. Annie Andrews, a Democrat, is a mom and pediatrician. After nearly fifteen years caring for sick kids at the Children’s Hospital in Charleston, she saw how Washington’s corruption hurt kids and families while special interests and career politicians benefit. Andrews is running for Senate to fight for affordable healthcare, lower grocery and prescription drug prices, and take on Washington by passing term limits on all politicians, banning insider stock trading by members of Congress, and she’ll refuse corporate PAC money.

Darline Graham, a Republican, is South Carolina’s first female Senator and Lindsey Graham’s sister, appointed to carry on her brother’s legacy in the seat he held for over two decades. She’s been endorsed by President Trump and Senator Tim Scott for her strong conservative values and commitment to South Carolina. In the Senate, she’ll cut out-of-control spending, lower taxes, and secure the border to keep our streets safe.

After hearing that information, the choices shifted in Andrews’ favor, with 44% picking her, 39% Graham, 4% Whitener, and 13% undecided.

With Independent voters, Andrews led by 33 points in the original question and by 39 points after hearing the two bios. The pollster characterized this as Andrews “solidifying her Democratic base and winning over voters in the middle by large margins.”

The poll highlighted Andrews’ stronger favorability ratings as well, with 36% favorable and 21% unfavorable image; among Independents, Andrews was even stronger, with a +24 favorability.

Graham was the opposite and “saddled with negative baggage,” the pollster wrote, with 36% favorable and 49% unfavorable, and far underwater with Independents at -47 favorability.

Graham may have won the primary, but is struggling to win over the GOP base, the pollster added, at 53% favorable and 32% unfavorable among Republicans.

The pollster — which, again, was hired by the Andrews campaign, and is not neutral — argued that this was “not a conventional red-state long shot” and the “seat is very much in play.” Impact Research’s reasoning was that Andrews was more “appealing to voters” and Graham was a “weak incumbent” who is “deeply unpopular” and has “an overwhelming amount of baggage.”

If Andrews is able to garner the ” proper resources to both defend her values and highlight Graham’s weaknesses,” meaning campaign donations, she “has a chance to pull off a major upset,” the pollster wrote, describing this race as an “opportunity” that was “worth national investment.”

Darline Graham became a senator after her older brother, the incumbent, died unexpectedly at the age of 71 on July 11, shortly after winning his primary.

She was appointed by South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster(R) — at Trump’s enthusiastic urging — to finish her brother’s term and sworn into office on July 14.

Trump soon declared he was encouraging Graham to run for the seat and posted a “Complete and Total Endorsement” for her on his Truth Social account, but that was not sufficient to clear the field for her. Eleven other Republicans filed to run for the Aug. 11 special primary election, including Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC), Rep. Russell Fry (R-SC), and former South Carolina congressman and governor Mark Sanford.

Graham and Norman advanced to a runoff, and despite a disastrous debate performance by Graham, she scored the win and advanced to face Andrews in the general.

Norman expressed bitterness after the defeat, calling Trump’s decision to endorse in the primary “shocking” and even suggesting that Republicans should vote for him as a write-in on the general election ballot. He later walked that back and said he would support Graham in November, but his critiques of Graham reflect those voiced by other South Carolina Republicans.

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