Decision Desk HQ Moves Florida Governor’s Race to TOSS UP

AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

Decision Desk HQ, a nationally respected elections forecaster, moved the Florida governor’s race to “Toss Up” Wednesday after weeks of declining numbers for the Republican nominee Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) compared to his Democratic opponent, former Republican and former Rep. David Jolly (R-FL).

Donalds steamrolled his primary opponents in the race to be Florida’s next governor with the help of President Donald Trump’s endorsement but has not been able to reach the kind of lead over Jolly that many Florida Republicans have in recent statewide races, with recent polling showing the race in a statistical tie.

Jolly is significantly outmatched in fundraising, and in 2022, DeSantis absolutely clobbered Charlie Crist, the former governor, former congressman, former Republican, and former independent. Still, DeSantis’ nearly 20-point re-election victory was inflated by several factors, and 2026 is a whole new ball game from 2022.

With Trump’s polling numbers sinking to abysmal new depths as his second term has progressed, Donalds removed the majority of references to Trump from his campaign website this week and recently started emphasizing his endorsement from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) far more prominently.

Meanwhile, several election prognosticators have shifted their ratings for the Florida gubernatorial contest to the left, including Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and the Cook Political Report.

On Sept. 16, Decision Desk HQ noted Donalds’ win probability had “slipped” seven points, with Jolly “gain[ing] ground each week.”

The race was rated “Leans Republican” but “is nearing the range where it would become a Toss Up,” the respected ratings outlet tweeted.

That prediction only took a week to come true. On Wednesday, Decision Desk HQ announced “Florida’s gubernatorial race has shifted into the Toss UP column,” with Donalds now only “narrowly favored” to win.

Jolly’s campaign touted the ratings change sending out a press release calling it “the most significant shift in the race to date.”

“Change is here and we’re going to win!” Jolly wrote in a tweet posted shortly after the announcement.

“The Florida Governor’s race is officially a toss-up, but that won’t change our approach. David will continue to focus on reaching every voter to share the change agenda that got us here: housing, healthcare, education, and stopping data centers,” said Jolly-Graham campaign Senior Advisor Mark Riddle in a statement provided to Mediaite. “Our campaign has built a strong coalition, and that support will only grow as Floridians learn more about why David is the clear choice in this race.”

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