‘Trust No One!’ CNN Data Guru Breaks Down Why Democrats Should Be ‘Nervous’ About Retaking Senate

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten explained Wednesday why Democrats should be “nervous” despite polling indicating they may retake the Senate in the midterms.

At the beginning of his segment, Enten pointed out that Democratic candidates have been polling ahead of their Republican opponents in multiple states that President Donald Trump won by a landslide in the last election. In Ohio, Alaska, and Texas, Democrats lead the polls by margins of four, three, and three, respectively.

Those figures, Enten noted, can be deceiving. In the period from the 2018 elections to the 2024 contests, Republicans outperformed polls by an average of 4.1 points in states that Trump won. In blue states, Republicans outperformed by just 0.2 points. Enten then had a message for the Democratic Party: “Trust no one!”

“We really have not seen that Republicans outperform their polls in the blue states,” Enten said. “It’s really concentrated in the red states. We saw it in 2018, we saw it in 2020, we saw it in 2022, we saw it in 2024, as well.”

If Republicans do end up outperforming the polls like they have in prior elections, they’re likely to retain control of the Senate, Enten said:

And what does it mean for the Senate? That is, I think, the key question.

If we have the 2026 Senate map, but you take the polling averages and then you say that, “Hey, the Republicans will outrun the polling averages by 4.1 points in the states that Trump won,” look at this. This is, I think, the key nugget.

Republicans would maintain control of the Senate with some room to spare, 52 to 48, because they would win in Michigan, right?

They’d hold on to Ohio. They would hold on to Texas. They would hold on — coming to [Kate Bolduan’s] side of the board — they’d hold on to Alaska… So the bottom line is this: yes, Democrats are ahead right now.

If the polling averages end up being the result, Democrats win control of the Senate. If we have the same average bias we’ve had in the past, well, I don’t know.

Watch above via CNN

Jason Cohen contributed to this report.

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