‘I Was Surprised!’ CNN Data Guru Reveals ‘Most Likely’ Midterm Election Outcome

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten found a Democratic sweep of Congress is now the single “most likely” midterm outcome after crunching thousands of polls, a result he admitted surprised him.

Enten laid out four possible scenarios for control of Washington in a video uploaded to YouTube on Monday, assigning a 52% chance to Democrats winning both the House and Senate.

“I was surprised by this before we started cracking the numbers, but that is why we do it,” Enten said. “It’s the numbers. Don’t blame me. The numbers are the numbers.”

The projection rests partly on Senate polling that Enten said shows Democrats competitive even across states that have recently leaned Republican. He pointed to Democratic leads of 9 points in North Carolina and 3 points in both Maine and Ohio, along with a 2-point advantage in Texas and a competitive race in Iowa.

Under the map Enten presented, Democrats could emerge with a 52-48 Senate majority. Even if Republicans captured Michigan, he said, Democrats could still finish with 51 seats.

Enten also pointed to President Donald Trump’s political standing as a major factor facing Republicans. He showed polling showing just 24% of Americans believe Republican policies have “helped” their cost of living, compared with 55% who say they have “hurt” their financial position.

“That is very, very bad news,” he warned, pointing out the issue as one that got Trump elected in 2024.

Additionally, the president’s net approval rating, Enten added, is 20 points underwater and the analyst said he’d gone back through the “history books” to find “there were only two other presidents who had a sub-20 net approval besides Trump at this point of midterm cycle.”

“Richard Nixon in 1974, he was literally forced to resign just a few days before now back in 1974, I wasn’t alive then, I heard it was a groovy time, and then George W. Bush in 2006 also had a net approval rating under 20-points at this point,” the analyst said.

He continued: “Did either one of those two folks, did their party, hold on or win control of the House or the Senate in the great Congress that is of the United States of America. Did they win either chamber?

“No!” he declared. “No, they did not. Bush’s party lost both of them, Nixon’s party in fact did not hold on or win control of either of them.”

The next-most-likely outcome, according to Enten, is divided control resulting in a Democratic House and Republican Senate, which he put at 33% likelihood.

A Republican sweep came in at a 15% chance. Enten cited the GOP’s structural advantages and Democrats’ deeply negative party favorability ratings as reasons Republicans could still retain both chambers.

The least likely outcome, at below 1%, was Republicans retaining the House while Democrats capture the Senate.

Watch above via YouTube.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!