Democrat Flips Trump’s Mar-a-Lago District as Harry Enten Paints Grim Picture for Republicans’ Midterm Hopes

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten painted a grim picture for Republicans when it comes to the midterms after seeing the results for Democrat Emily Gregory in a Florida special election in the district where President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago sits.

Enten joined Erin Burnett on CNN’s OutFront on Tuesday evening just after Burnett wrapped up a chat with Gregory, who was leading a special state House election against Republican Jon Maples, endorsed by President Donald Trump, by a wide margin at the time.

Enten and Burnett spoke as 99% of votes had been reported in the district, and Gregory led Maples by nearly 1,000 votes. Decision Desk HQ and others had called at that point that Gregory was the projected winner of the race, all the more surprising considering the district was carried by Trump by 11 points in the 2024 presidential election. Trump voted by mail in the election.

“What is so important, it is happening now in Donald Trump’s backyard, but it has been happening across the country. We have seen these massive shifts in these special elections,” Enten told Burnett.

Special elections across the country, he added, have shown a major shift towards Democrats since their 2024 loss.

“We’ve seen so far is a shift to the Democrats on average of 12 points. We have seen a shift of 12 points from the Kamala Harris baseline from what we saw,” Enten said.

He called Florida’s special election “emblematic of what we’ve seen nationwide,” and it likely spells bad news for Republicans once the midterm elections roll around.

Enten said:

There’s a reason we’re talking about this, and it’s not just because it’s in Donald Trump’s backyard, though that’s part of the reason why, it is because, historically speaking, special elections have forecasted what will happen in the midterm elections. I went all the way back, since I was in high school, back to the 2005, 2006 cycle, and every single time that a party outperformed the presidential baseline in the next midterm election, what we saw was five out of five times that party went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives. So what is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay in Mar-a-Lago. It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.

Watch above via CNN.

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