CNN Data Guru Says White Non-College Voters Are ‘Ripping the Heart Out of Donald Trump’s Presidency’

On Tuesday, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten dug into President Donald Trump’s collapsing poll numbers with one of his key voter blocs: White non-college voters.

A president’s party typically takes a hit in midterm elections, but numerous signs are pointing to a very grim November for Republicans.

The polling numbers for Trump and the GOP have been brutal as his second term has progressed, with Americans’ views on his handling of the economy — a topic on which he had previously outpolled Democrats — taking a dive. The president’s war in Iran has been another issue dragging down his polling, specifically because of its impact on gas prices.

Enten appeared on Tuesday’s episode of CNN News Central to break down the latest numbers. Anchor John Berman kicked off the segment by asking him about why Trump was promising a new steel plant in Iowa that would be worth about $15 billion.

“The target group of voters is white, non-college voters,” said Enten. “They were the heartbeat of President Trump’s three presidential campaigns. And right now, the heartland is ripping the heart out of Donald Trump’s presidency.”

In 2024, Trump was leading with this group of voters against then-Vice President Kamala Harris in October 2024, just before the election, by 25 points, said Enten, “but down he goes!”

“He’s now in the negative with White non-college voters!” Enten continued. “Look at this. He’s down a minus two points. He’s in the negative territory with a group of voters that fueled his three presidential bids and allowed him to win a second term in the White House back in 2024. We’re talking a drop here with the key core group of Donald Trump’s presidential campaigns, of 27 points away from the President of the United States. No wonder he’s so low.”

Berman asked Enten how Trump’s current -2 points standing compares to other GOP presidents.

Enten pointed out that the numbers were especially bad for Trump because “was more reliant on White non-college voters than any previous Republican president, and now he’s at the lowest of any Republican president, at this point in his second term among White non-college voters.”

The previous record holder, George W. Bush, “was less reliant on White non-college voters,” Enten continued, and the same was true for Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan.

This was a group of voters “that Donald Trump has always been reliant on, and now even they have turned on him,” Enten said.

Berman asked what happened to Bush in the midterms of his second term, and Enten replied, “His party lost the United States House, and it also lost the United States Senate, in large part because a lot of voters who had previously been voting Republican decided to vote Democratic.”

The discussion turned to the issue of inflation, which Enten said was “the key reason why Donald Trump won a second term in the White House,” because voters “didn’t like Joe Biden” on inflation and cost of living and “decided to give Donald Trump a second chance.”

“Take a look here, though — oh my! Oh my goodness gracious!” Enten exclaimed as a new graphic came on the screen showing Trump’s net approval on inflation with White non-college voters. The president’s numbers had gone from plus-24 points to now minus-39 points.

“That’s a change of 63 points in the wrong direction, on the key issue that got Donald Trump reelected to a second term, among the key group that got him reelected,” said Enten.

These factors were contributing to why Rob Sand looked likely to become Iowa’s first Democratic governor in 20 years, Enten said.

Watch the clip above via CNN.

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