CNN Data Guru Says ‘Mathematical Perfect Storm’ May Give Kansas First Democratic Senator in Nearly Century

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten argued a “mathematical perfect storm” of President Donald Trump’s collapsing popularity rating and a well-liked Democratic challenger could deliver Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94 years.

Enten broke down the unexpectedly competitive race Monday on CNN News Central, after a New York Times/Siena poll showed Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) tied with Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

“What is going on?” Enten asked, before pointing squarely at the president.

Trump is currently 15 points underwater in Kansas, according to polling shown by Enten, who pointed out that Trump faces a 20-point swing from the same stage of his first term, when he held a net approval rating of plus five.

“That is 16 points less popular than any other Republican president at this point in term this century,” Enten said, adding that Trump is “probably at this point in a term, the least popular Republican president, probably since, well, Herbert Hoover.”

Enten then noted that Kansas itself has gradually moved away from the Republican Party relative to the rest of the country. Seventeen states are now more Republican than Kansas based on the average of the past two presidential elections, compared with just seven during the 2004 and 2008 cycles.

“Kansas, one way to measure it, is less Republican right now than it has been in over a century, versus the national average,” he said.

“It’s still leaning Republican, but not anywhere near as Republican as it once was,” he added.

“So if Kansas could talk, it would say, it’s not just you, President Trump, it’s not just me, the state of Kansas, but it might also be a little bit of him, the Democratic candidate,” Berman followed.

The Democrat recorded a net favorability rating of plus 12 in the Times polling, which Enten said was the highest of any candidate tested in a major Senate race. Hamilton also remains relatively unknown to voters, potentially giving him room to improve his numbers as the campaign enters its final stretch.

“This is why Senate Republicans are dumping $14 million into this race to try to drive this number down,” Berman said.

“This to me is potentially a mathematical perfect storm,” Enten concluded. “A historically unpopular Republican in Kansas in Donald Trump and a historically popular Democratic Senate candidate in Adam Hamilton. That may be the equation that gets Kansas its first Democratic senator in 94 years.”

Watch above via CNN.

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