‘Big Siren Warning Sign for Democrats!’ CNN Data Guru Says GOP ‘Very Much in the Ball Game’ for Midterms

Sarah RumpfOct 16th, 2026, 7:58 pm
 

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten had a warning for Democrats eagerly anticipating a “blue wave” in the November midterms, pointing out the reality of the Senate polling numbers.

Enten joined CNN anchor Sara Sidner Friday to chat about the congressional races, with Sidner noting the Senate races were “far tighter” than those in the House.

“Yeah, yeah,” Enten agreed. “The Senate is the one is where we are going to be focusing our attention on election night, for the most part, unless there’s a big surprise in the House of Representatives.”

Enten then went through the latest polling margins in the key swing states of Ohio, Michigan, Texas, Maine, Iowa, and Kansas, noting that “Democrats likely need to win at least three of these in order to win control” of the Senate, noting there was a tie in Kansas and the Democratic nominees were up a few points.

So the polling was suggesting Democrats would “take control of the United States Senate” but the question was whether or not Election Night would match that.

Sidner asked Enten about the polls’ margins of error, and he replied the average error rate was 3.7 percentage points, and “that is why the Senate at this point is too close to call.”

That was the “big siren warning sign for Democrats,” Enten explained, commenting that Democrats must feel like Charlie Brown facing off against Lucy with the football, because “you’ve seen yourselves ahead before, and then Election Day the votes are cast and counted and the Republicans come out ahead.”

If Republican candidates outperform the averages by 3.75 points,” Enten continued, they would get 52 seats and Democrats would get 48, and the GOP “would easily maintain control of the U.S. House.”

“The bottom line is this we have a few weeks to go left in this campaign” and the “polling has been tight,” Enten concluded. “I think we’ve seen this story a little bit before — and that is why this Senate map is still way too close to call, Republicans very much in the ball game.”

Watch the clip above via CNN.

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Sarah Rumpf - Contributing Editor

Sarah Rumpf is an attorney and Contributing Editor focusing on politics, law, and the media. She joined Mediaite in 2020. A native Floridian, Sarah attended the University of Florida, graduating with a double major in Political Science and German, and earned her Juris Doctor, cum laude, from the UF College of Law. Sarah's writing has been featured at National Review, The Daily Beast, Reason, Law&Crime, Independent Journal Review, Texas Monthly, The Capitolist, Breitbart Texas, Townhall, RedState, The Orlando Sentinel, and the Austin-American Statesman, and her political commentary has led to appearances on television, radio, and podcast programs across the globe. Follow Sarah on Threads, Twitter, and Bluesky.