Nate Silver Says He’s Never Seen ‘Worse Vibes From a Party’ Than 2026 GOP

Pollster Nate Silver delivered a scathing assessment of the Republican Party ahead of November’s midterm elections, declaring that he’s never seen “worse vibes from a party” than those surrounding the GOP in 2026.

Silver’s harsh words came during a Friday crossover episode of his Still Counting podcast with Pod Save America co-host and former Obama staffer Tommy Vietor. Both shows are part of the Crooked Media network.

Vietor asked Silver’s opinion on a take from Dan Rosenheck, The Economist’s data editor, who argued on social media Thursday, “Every credible forecaster says u can’t predict direction of polling error. This may be true nationally, but is demonstrably false for states/districts. In any given year, errors are most favorable to Dems in blue states and Reps in red ones. Most consistent pattern I’ve ever seen.”

“I’ve seen a lot of patterns in my day,” Silver remarked. “The sun coming up is, I would say, a more consistent pattern than systematic polling error.”

The pollster explained that election forecasting models factor in more than polling averages, including the national political environment, a state’s partisan lean, and candidate quality.

He then pointed to Nebraska, where Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts released an internal poll showing him leading independent challenger Dan Osborn by just three points.

“The fact that Republican internal polls show their candidate ahead only by three points in Nebraska, which is quite a bit redder than Texas, like that doesn’t seem good for Republicans,” Silver said.

“Their posture has been very defensive,” he added, citing concerns about races in traditionally Republican states.

“I don’t think I’ve ever seen worse vibes from a party than I have from the GOP, just based on the public internal polls, the rumored internal polls, and where the resources are being spent,” Silver concluded.

Watch above on YouTube.

Jason Cohen contributed to this report.

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