Nate Silver Reveals Republican Party’s ‘Best Hope’ for Midterms

Longtime polling expert Nate Silver detailed the “best hope” for the Republican Party to salvage the upcoming midterm elections.

The latest polling numbers have suggested that November could get ugly for Republicans. At least one survey put President Donald Trump’s approval rating below 30% for the first time, and several key Congressional races — including those in Texas and Florida — could actually end in wins for the Democratic Party.

Even Fox News recently adjusted its own Power Rankings in favor of Democrats in more than a dozen races across the country.

With the war in Iran having an adverse affect on the economy and tanking morale among Republicans, Democrats have a chance to flip both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

On Wednesday’s episode of the podcast Still Counting, Silver described how he believes the Republicans could still come out on top in the midterms:

Here’s what I think is the most important thing going on right now. If you take the polls at face value — especially the polls like Marist or whatever, the polls that don’t seem to feel pressure to hedge or herd for better or worse, it might be for worse in the end — they suggest that Republicans are losing ground among Hispanics and among rural working-class white voters, right? Who are the exact two groups that Trump gained the most from the course of 2016 through last year? Those two groups exactly. Those are, however, also the same groups that tend to be– I’m going to use the term under-sampled loosely, right? But like, those are the groups where the polling error tends to be concentrated, as well, more so the working-class white voters than Hispanic voters, right?

Silver went on to say that it’s entirely possible the “very voters that moved to his coalition” could finally be “fed up of Trump” and it impacts the midterms.

Republicans’ “best hope,” however, would be that the polling data is inaccurate.

“If it’s a big polling error, though,” Silver continued, “then all of a sudden you’re kind of stuck in, ‘Forget about the Senate,’ right? The House, probably Democrats would salvage, but you know, that’s why it’s– I mean right now, Republicans’ best hope is that the polls suck again.”

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