MS NOW’s Katy Tur Says She’s ‘More Skeptical’ of Texas Midterm Polling After Her Trip

MS NOW anchor Katy Tur spoke to Puck News co-founder Peter Hamby on Thursday about the latest polling heading into the midterms and whether or not Democrats may be overestimating their lead.

“All right, Peter’s back with us. Let’s talk about polling. Is this just a product of pollsters really not wanting to be wrong and trying to invent ways to say, ‘We could be wrong, maybe it’s this,’ because the polling does look so outrageously bad for Republicans right now?” Tur asked during the conversation.

“Yeah, I mean, that would be what pollsters and data folks call herding: pollsters, not great ones probably, directing their polls to align with the news cycle and sentiment. Good pollsters will model; they’ll correct for non-response bias or the inability to reach voters via landline or cell phone with their models,” Hamby replied, adding:

I did find this Echelon poll interesting because, look, the generic ballot lead for Democrats nationally, according to Nate Silver, on the average is about nine points right now. State Navigate, a Virginia-based data firm, has the generic ballot lead for Democrats at 20 points. Virginia is obviously more blue-purple leaning than some of these other states. The Echelon numbers that I wrote about, that you cited, had a three-point lead for Republicans when factored in the neighbor question.

And look, I mean, this is not bulletproof, but the USC Dornsife Center out here in Los Angeles did a study after 2020, where pollsters were coming back with polls in the Biden-Trump race showing Biden with a seven- or eight-point lead. But when you ask the question, “Who do you think your neighbor or your social circle is going to vote for?” the results are actually closer to the final outcome of the election, which was Biden winning by around four points. Now, this doesn’t necessarily mean shy Trump voter. It could be people responding to polls, saying what they think they should say. They’re talking to a media organization. They’re reading the headlines.

They think Democrats are going to win, but this gives them a little air cover, this question, to maybe say what they really think. The other thing too is, like, this could just be an outlier, Katy. I mean, I don’t think anyone really thinks that Republicans have a three-point lead on the generic ballot, but it does suggest that these races could be closer than some of the polls are showing. And look, this happened in 2020. There were plenty of races, and that was a presidential year, a different scenario, but a lot of the states on the ballot this year, South Carolina, Iowa, you know, some of those races had Democrats winning in polls, good polls.

The New York Times/Siena poll had Democrats winning in some of these races, and Republicans ended up outperforming the polls. One more thing that’s very interesting, Katy: Fox did polls yesterday where they asked Texans, for example, “Do you want James Talarico or Ken Paxton to win?” Talarico is up by two in that poll. The same poll asked, “Who do you want to control the Senate?” and Texas voters said Republicans by one. So that’s sort of another wrinkle here, which is, you know, some voters in these states say they want a divided Senate.

“Yeah, and there’s also just a feeling. This is what I was getting when I was in Texas, and I’m a little more skeptical of the polling in Texas, having been there, because I did just get a lot of ‘I’m going to vote for the team,’ which was the message from Angie Nixon, which means you have a terrible candidate. But the polling, or the Republican impulse, is so deeply ingrained in Texas, and it feels like it’s hard to break, which makes me wonder about what you found, or what you’re reporting about, which is: are pollsters getting honest answers, or are they just getting the answers that people think they want to hear?” Tur replied.

“Yeah. And there’s also the question: this is a midterm year. It’s about base turnout and enthusiasm. There could be, you know, some of those voters you talked to in Texas, Katy, maybe they didn’t want to tell you who they’re voting for. Maybe, as John Del Volpe said in that previous segment, they’re going to vote for Democrats. They also might just stay home. Like, that might be the thing. They can’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat, but, again, Iowa, Texas, these are jump-ball races. Don’t trust the polls if you’re a Democrat. In that sense, you just have to run through the tape,” Hamby replied.

“Everyone’s going to go out and vote. Peter Hamby, always good to have you. It’s all going to come down to turnout,” Tur concluded.

“Oh yeah? I’ve never heard of that before,” Hamby quipped in reply.

Watch the clip above via MS NOW.

New: The Mediaite One-Sheet "Newsletter of Newsletters"
Your daily summary and analysis of what the many, many media newsletters are saying and reporting. Subscribe now!