Ex-Treasury Secretary Sounds Alarm on What ‘Election Chaos’ Would Do to Trump’s ‘Already Weak’ Economy in Scorching Op-Ed 

Robert Rubin (AP Photo/Jason DeCrow, file)

Soaring gas and diesel prices, the cost of groceries, increasing inflation — all have the economy at the top of voters minds with the midterm elections just 13 days away, but there’s another economic threat on the horizon: election interference.

So warned ex-Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin in a sobering op-ed in The New York Times Wednesday, in which the now-88-year-old former Clinton administration official broke down what could happen to the economy if President Donald Trump tries to upend the Nov. 3 contests:

If the Trump administration launches an effort to manipulate the outcome of the midterms, the economic impact could be felt immediately, and it could last long after Mr. Trump’s presidency ends.

With the exception of the booming A.I. sector, corporate investment is already weak. The National Federation of Independent Business’s measurement of small-business uncertainty is 32 percent above its historical average. This seems like a bad time to inject substantially more instability into the mix.

The short-term risks from election interference look even more concerning when we consider the possibility that a fight over the outcomes will not necessarily remain contained to the courtroom.

Mr. Trump has explicitly refused to rule out invoking the Insurrection Act in regard to the 2026 elections.

Starting in late 2025, a surge of immigration enforcement agents into Minneapolis cost the city, its businesses and its residents an estimated $700 million. Sustained post-election chaos coupled with aggressive federal interference could create similar disruptions on a nationwide scale.

“The integrity of our elections … has been one of the keys to American prosperity,” Rubin wrote in the lengthy piece, which highlighted in scathing detail the “obstacles to fair and free midterm elections” the president has already put forth:

From amplifying false claims of fraud and slashing defenses against foreign meddling in our elections to attempting to bully states into using an error-prone database to purge voter registrations, the Trump administration has already thrown up obstacles to fair and free midterm elections.

There are widespread fears Mr. Trump and his allies could go further, including by sending armed federal agents to polling locations, seizing ballot boxes and exploiting a procedural loophole involving the clerk of the House that could enable them to refuse to seat duly elected Democratic members when the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.

Rubin, who served as Treasury Secretary from 1995 to 1999, insisted the markets are not taking the prospect of election interference seriously enough and called on business leaders to be proactive in protecting the country’s elections.

“If the Trump administration launches an effort to manipulate the outcome of the midterms, the economic impact could be felt immediately, and it could last long after Mr. Trump’s presidency ends,” he warned.

When I talk to leaders in business and politics, even many of those who acknowledge the election threat seem to consider such a possibility remote.

They do not tend to take Mr. Trump’s attacks on voting seriously. That’s another way of saying that the markets are not pricing in what I consider a meaningful risk.

If Mr. Trump accomplishes in 2026 what he was unable to with respect to the 2020 election, or even if he causes widespread chaos by coming closer to his objective, it could create serious disruptions in the bond and equity markets.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries recently reached 5.36 percent — higher than it was in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis — in part because of concerns about the country’s policy trajectory.

Election chaos could increase investors’ worry about the ability of our political system to deal with our fiscal problems, driving yields even higher.

This would result in higher debt service costs for the government and higher mortgage rates and credit card bills for consumers, exacerbating our already considerable challenges.

I’ve lived my entire life as a citizen of a constitutional republic that provides rights and protections, and I’d like to continue doing so. I imagine most Americans, regardless of their political leanings, feel the same way.

Rubin pushed for business leaders and “in all sectors of our society” to work with state and local officials to safeguard the country’s elections, including through using “behind-the-scenes influence to discourage those who might be considering any steps to disrupt or overturn the midterms.”

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