Cook Political Report Gives Major Update on House Races — But It’s Not All Good News for Dems

Cook Political Report has issued a major update on more than a dozen House races with just 39 days to go until the midterm elections — but while the prediction favors the Democrats, it’s not all good news for them.

Cook Political has now shifted 15 races toward Dems and says the Republican Party is on track to lose its House majority, according to its update Friday.

The change is especially notable because the flagged races are in places President Donald Trump once carried by big numbers.

But the change — which comes amid a stream of dismal polls for both the GOP and Trump as voters struggle with high prices and as the unpopular war in Iran drags on — doesn’t mean a blue wave is coming in November.

The group says Democrats could end up taking as few as five seats in the midterms, or as many as 15. The party is currently down just three seats in the chamber.

Carrie Dann, Cook Political managing editor, appeared Friday on CNN’s Inside Politics with guest host Phil Mattingly to discuss the shift:

What we have said is they are on track to win the majority. And on paper, could Republicans win a majority of the 22 toss up races on paper, sure.

In reality, all but impossible. Yeah. That range from 5 to 15. Also could and may narrow and be upwardly revised in Democrats favor.

The main thing that we’re watching, I’d call it the million dollar question, but it’s the $450 million question is whether Republican advertising can move the needle at all here.

A lot of the races that we’re looking at that are sort of in that lean category that could end up going Democrats way, are places where the Democrat and the Republican are essentially tied, but they’re both tied at, say, 46%.

That leaves a lot of undecided voters in very red districts. What Republicans are hoping is that they can barrage those kind of districts with millions of dollars of ads painting the Democrats as out of touch, and they will get those undecided voters who are Republican leaning who probably voted for trump to come home.

If those numbers don’t move over the next couple of weeks, it will show that Republicans maybe have hit a ceiling with their message that money can’t overcome.

The prediction comes as the Republican Party sits on a massive fundraising edge over the Democrats and as Trump’s MAGA Inc PAC has mostly failed to dole out its cash.

Watch above via CNN.

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