Did Trump Get Bump in Approval Polls From WHCD Dinner Shooting? What the Facts Say

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It has been a week and a half since President Donald Trump was whisked away during the shooting incident at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner (WHCD). Has there been a rallying effect in his approval polls?

In the immediate wake of the shooting, some wondered if it would result in a boost in polls that sometimes accompanies such an event, and sometimes doesn’t. After the attempt in 2024 that wounded Trump and killed a supporter, ABC News noted Trump scored his highest approval in their poll in four years.

But there were other factors at play there. Trump was headed into his party’s national convention, he was days away from then-President Joe Biden’s bombshell withdrawal, and he obviously was not in office and had no job performance to impact him in real time.

This event took place under vastly different circumstances. While the breach in security was significant, the shooter never got close to Trump. And Trump is facing vastly different headwinds.

Aside from the occasional outlier — like the “100 percent” MAGA poll that Trump bragged long and hard about — Trump has been showered with bad polling news for most of his second term. Recent surveys reflect all-time low approval ratings and disastrous numbers with independents that even led pro-Trump host Megyn Kelly to remark, “You’re effed!” if those numbers don’t change.

The short answer is no, Trump did not get an approval bump. In the New York Times average of polls, Trump’s approval rating is statistically unchanged since the shooting, ticking from 39 percent to 38 percent. Movement in individual polls taken after the shooting has been within a point in most cases, well within the margins of error.

Perhaps more sobering for Trump are the results from the Rasmussen tracking poll, which is generally a good deal more favorable to Trump than others. That survey showed a plunge from 45 percent the day after the shooting to 41 percent on May 6.

And Rasmussen’s “Approval Index” showed a sharper 5-point drop in voters who “strongly approve” of Trump’s performance.

Rasmussen

Another helpful chart might be the average price of gasoline, which has become a heavy political weight for Trump:

Gas Buddy

The average national price shot up like a rocket after the shooting, from $4.09 per gallon to $4.56 as of Wednesday morning, according to Gas Buddy.

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